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Matthew Tostevin, Reuters editor for Africa, writes in the Reuters Africa News blog:

It now appears very unlikely that Yar’Adua will ever return to Generic Ambien Best office, but that only intensifies the battle ahead of the election due by 2011.

According to Generic Ambien Best an unwritten agreement within the ruling PDP party for rotating power between Nigeria’s regions, Jonathan would not be Generic Ambien Best able to stand because he is from the south and Generic Ambien Best the next term should still go to Yar’Adua’s north – although no Generic Ambien Best doubt some of his aides will be wondering whether they really need to Generic Ambien Best stick to that.

Most likely the Generic Ambien Best fight for the PDP nomination will be among northerners and there is Generic Ambien Best no shortage of contendors. But it also means it needs to Generic Ambien Best be someone happy to serve only one term so that the Generic Ambien Best presidency can return to the south in 2015.

Although the Generic Ambien Best army has firmly insisted on staying on the sidelines so far (perhaps another good reason for the backslapping in Abuja), there is Generic Ambien Best no guarantee it would if the transition turns out to be Generic Ambien Best chaotic, corruption soars on a spending spike and there is no Generic Ambien Best improvement in the irregularities that are anything but irregular when it Generic Ambien Best comes to Nigerian ballots.

One also has Generic Ambien Best to think about the machine that was ruling the country all the Generic Ambien Best while Yar’Adua was not available. Is the Generic Ambien Best new President Goodluck Jonathan going to be able to take charge of the Generic Ambien Best machine? Is he going to be deferring to it/them? Those are going to be crucial questions in the next few months.