Sep

13

Dani Rodrik on Export Led Growth

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Much has been made by the IMF of emerging markets (.pdf) in Africa. Dani Rodrik looks at what happens in the current period where rich countries, especially the US, are in a ’slowdown’, and there is much anti-globalisation sentiments among Americans. Add to this a not-so-hospitable disposition towards exports from developing countries (actually, China is the biggest deal, and for outsourcing, India), an American current-account deficit of $739 billion (5.3% of its GDP), and an emerging markets and oil-exporting countries surplus of $631 billion and you have a recipe for protectionism in developed countries. He concludes by writing:

Long-term success still depends on what happens at home rather than abroad. What is moderately bad news at the moment will become terrible news only if economic distress in the advanced countries – especially the US – is allowed to morph into xenophobia and all-out protectionism; if large emerging markets such as China, India, and Brazil fail to realize that they have become too important to free ride on global economic governance; and if, as a consequence, others overreact by turning their back on the world economy and pursue autarkic policies.

Of course, a lot depends on what happens inside developing countries. Rodrik is big with institutions, and I am firmly with him on that; institutions matter, and in really serious ways. But so does the international policy environment. I am concerned with what happens if an all-out protectionism breaks out. But then, why do I fear for Nigeria? It is not like we export anything, right? As long as there is still oil we are fine. Anybody says non?

Rodrik’s full article, part of Project Syndicate, is here. The post announcing the article is on Dani Rodrik’s blog here.

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Sep

6

Project Syndicate

Filed Under News, Reviews | 4 Comments

I just discovered the Project Syndicate site…. I am not yet done exploring it, but I think it promises to be interesting. The objectives, according to the home page, are:

- bringing distinguished voices from across the world to local audiences everywhere;
- strengthening the independence of printed media in transition and developing countries;
- upgrading their journalistic, editorial, and business capacities.

The list of contributors include Jeffrey Sachs, Joseph Stiglitz, Dani Rodrik, Kenneth Rogoff, and Joschka Fischer, among others. If you have time you could check it out… http://www.project-syndicate.org/


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Sep

4

Some Trade Policy-Related Papers

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Emerging Economies and the WTO
Ms. Mariarosaria Iorio of the International Gender and Trade Network (IGTN) thinks, among other things, that the fact that the insistence of emerging economies on keeping the Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) during the last Doha Round, an insistence that led to the breakdown of the round, shows that the world of trade policies is experiencing a geopolitical shift. This, she says, is certainly different from what happened during the Uruguay round that led to the formation of the WTO. I agree with her. Here is the paper (.doc)

SSM and South-South Trade
An ActionAid publication, supporting SSM, debunks the argument that SSM would discourage south-south trade. It addresses what it describes as false premises:

1. the South – South trade in agriculture comprises the bulk of world trade in agriculture

2. the countries of the south are either agricultural exporters or agricultural importers

3. SSM will be used frequently and indiscriminately by many developing countries

4. the inclusion of an effective SSM in the final Doha Round outcome will negatively affect the expected gains from agricultural trade liberalisation

5. South-South trade is an absolute good that must be pursued at all costs

The publication is here (.pdf)

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